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Subject:

Global Financial Markets

Knock-on effects

Thursday, 18 April 2024, written by Eddy Markus

Central banks believe that maintaining current interest rate levels will sufficiently slow the economy to further reduce inflation, enabling interest rate cuts later this year. However, investor doubts, particularly concerning the Fed, are growing. This means increased upward pressure on U.S. interest rates and the dollar, posing additional challenges for countries with weak currencies and heightening the risk of currency interventions and greater volatility in financial markets.

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Previous reports

If a recession does not follow, what will?

Thursday, 04 April 2024

U.S. economic data remain quite good and upward pressure on inflation appears to increase. Therefore, the Fed will remain cautious about rate cuts this year, and long-term interest rates may continue to rise in the near term. We see this as the prelude to a stock market correction and more downward pressure on economic growth.
 

How many rate cuts are in the pipeline?

Thursday, 21 March 2024

In our view, financial markets are assuming too many interest rate cuts and equities have discounted (too) many positive developments. These expectations will be adjusted in the relatively short term, resulting in substantial reversals in several markets.

When the facts change, I change my mind

Thursday, 07 March 2024
In the US, the labor force is growing faster than expected. Together with expectations of higher productivity growth, this suggests potential growth is higher than what the Fed assumes. We believe that growth will be at or above potential growth for the time being, which means that inflation and interest rates in the U.S. could remain higher for the time being than many investors are currently expecting.

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