Structural factors continue to exert more upward pressure on inflation compared to the years before the corona crisis. This complicates the work of central banks. Can they lower interest rates substantially in this climate?

An economic recovery in Europe and more stimulus in China increases speculation of a no-landing of the economy. As inflation also picks up, investors expect far fewer rate cuts and long-term interest rates are rising. In this report, we discuss how markets may react to these monetary headwinds and what this means for tactical asset allocation.

Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) plays a crucial role in an investors’ decision-making process. This report features three SAA models, their portfolio characteristics and the data we have used to construct the SAA models. In addition, we update the Expected Returns based on the return assumptions of approx. 50 asset managers and present 4 risk measures for every asset class in candle stick charts.