Global Political Analysis

Previous reports

Trump II - blessing or disaster for the financial markets?

Thursday, 14 March 2024

The chances of Donald Trump again inhabiting the White House starting next January are significant. What policies can we expect from Trump II and how will they affect the dollar, stocks, bonds and commodities, among others?

Don’t fight the Fed, but defy the CCP

Thursday, 29 February 2024

The adage among investors in recent decades has mostly been ‘Don't fight the Fed’. Financial markets do not seem to hold this view with regard to the Communist Party of China: in spite of statements about economic growth and stimulus efforts by Chinese policymakers, investors have largely shunned Chinese shares. Will China disappoint, and if so, what are the implications for the global economy and markets?

Has the West fired all its fiscal & monetary guns?

Thursday, 15 February 2024

What will continued populist advances in Europe and a Donald Trump election victory mean for financial markets?

Also available: Consultancy & Analysis on request

Bi-weekly publication & consultancy

In today’s complex, volatile and interconnected business and investing climate, decision-makers often struggle to effectively sift through the volumes of data about (geo)political, financial and economic risks. With our Global Political Analysis we filter out the noise and help you understand the political risks on the horizon. For clients in need of customized analysis, monitoring, scenarios and forecasts, we offer various consultancy services and write analyses on request. Feel free to contact me to discuss the options.

Our clients & cases

We supported a luxury bedding company with production facilities in the Philippines by providing an analysis of the national political situation and the potential impact of rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions within the Asian region.

A veterinary pharmaceutical company asked us for an assessment of the political-economic developments in Egypt and the likelihood of (further) capital controls and the consequences for the Egyptian pound. We also offered our insights into the political situation in Poland and the relations between Brussels and Warsaw.

For a corporate client in the business of digital learning tools, we presented an overview of the critical political risks for the world economy in the coming quarters, with a special focus on the chances of Trump becoming president again and the potential implications for EUR/USD.

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