Past predictions

On January 10, 2012 we wrote

This table presents our 2nd half 2011 predictions:

	End of June rate	End of June we predicted...	Current rate (on 10 Jan 2012)
EUR/USD	1.43	A decline to 1.30 and lower over the coming months to quarters	1.275
EUR/GBP	0.895	A decline towards 0.82 over the coming months to quarters	0.8250
GBP/USD	1.60	A decline towards 1.57 over the coming months to quarters	1.545
EUR/JPY	115	Coming months a decline towards 108 or lower	98.00
USD/JPY	81	In a range between 79 – 82, but not much lower than that	77
EUR/CHF	1.19	First a rise towards 1.23, then lower	1.2125
USD/CHF	0.83	An increase towards 1.00 over the coming quarters	0.95
AUD/USD	1.055	A decline towards 0.95 over the coming months	1.03
USD/CAD	0.985	An increase towards 1.05 over the coming months	1.02
S&P500 index	1.280	In the short run a rise (but not much higher than 1,400) followed by a decline towards 1,000	1.285
10-yr yield on German Bunds	2.85%	In the short run an increase towards 3.2%, followed by a decline towards 2.5%	1.85%
10-yr yield on US Treasuries	3.03%	Coming months an increase towards 3.3%, than a decline towards 2.5%	1.95%

On January 20, 2011 we wrote

This is a short update on our mid term currency predictions as from the 20th of October, and how they – three months later – played out until now.

	20th of October rate	We predicted then	(20 January)
EUR/USD	1.39	1.10	1.345
EUR/GBP	0.88	0.82	0.845
GBP/USD	1.57	1.40	158.8
EUR/CHF	1.34	1.20	129.6
EUR/JPY	112.5	100	111.5
USD/JPY	81.2	bottom at 80 then up	82.80

On July 1, 2010 we wrote

We envisage EUR/USD rising further towards 1.27. A further rise towards 1.30 – 1.35 is also quite possible from a chart technical point of view."

In the table below you will find our forecasts at the beginning of 2H 2010 and how they played out. Some of them were right on spot (German Bund and US 10-yr Treasury yield, USD/JPY, EUR/CHF), others not (GBP/USD, EUR/JPY) and some of them are moving in the right direction and are in the process of creeping towards our forcecasts.

	1st of July 2010 rate	We predicted then	Current rate (13 October)
EUR/USD	1.25	1.35	1.3936
EUR/GBP	0.83	0.95	0.88
GBP/USD	1.5	1.3	1.5836
EUR/CHF	1.32	1.3	1.3377
EUR/JPY	110	100	114
USD/JPY	90	85 -80	81.78
3-MTH EURIBOR	0.75	1.5	0.985
US 10yr Treasury	3.35	2.5-2.0	2.4469
German 10yr Bund	2.6	2.25	2.283

We have adjusted some forecasts, as the world economy and financial markets are changing constantly. The coming months are promising exciting times. Let's see if we can continue as well as we did in the previous months.

On March 19, 2009 we wrote

For yields on 10-year US and German Treasuries (now around 2.5% and 3.05% respectively) we therefore expect a rise over the coming quarters, on balance."

The 10-year US Treasury yield started to climb towards almost 4% in the subsequent quarters. The German yield rose as well, but that lasted months instead of quarters.

On March 6, 2008 we wrote

We expect EUR/USD to head downwards, in the first instance to around 1.35 and later possibly even to around 1.20… Probably, it will soon peak around 1.54."

At the time of writing, EUR/USD was at 1.5388 and fluctuated between that level and 1.5864 in the subsequent months before setting in a downswing towards 1.40. After that, a short-term upward correction took place, followed by a continued fall towards 1.2332 which was reached in October 2009.

On November 10, 2007 we wrote

EUR/USD will in our view over the coming months fluctuate between around 1.38 and 1.44 then start to drop toward 1.20. In the longer term we anticipate an upswing to well above 1.50."

In the subsequent months, EUR/USD did not fluctuate, but rose to 1.5949 in April 2008. However, it indeed fell toward 1.20 a few months later and rose to 1.5008 in October 2009.

On July 28, 2005 we wrote

The economy may once more begin to recover, for not only do we expect the 10-year yield to drop to around 4% if growth expectations weaken, but we also foresee that […] the US 10-year yield will embark on a climb to 5%-5.25% (according to our best guess it would reach that zone halfway through 2006)."

Within a few weeks, the 10-year yield did fall towards 4.01%, subsequently it started to climb and peaked at 5.24% by the end of June 2006.

On July 7, 2005 we wrote

As far as exchange rates are concerned, we believe that as soon as the rising oil price causes the US economy to decelerate, the dollar will fall. That is why we expect the EUR/USD to bottom out around 1.17 and then to start another upswing. To at least 1.25-1.27, perhaps even to well above 1.30."

And indeed, US growth decelerated from a 3.1% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2005, towards 1.4% in the first quarter of 2007. Consequently, EUR/USD bottomed out at 1.1718 mid-November 2007 to start a rally that lasted to well above 1.30.

On November 11, 2004 we wrote

We expect the EUR/GBP to top out around the current level, and then to slide towards 0.64 over the coming months to quarters. During this time the GBP/USD may well edge further upwards, but it should gradually fall back towards 1.75 on balance over the coming quarters."

At that time EUR/GBP stood at 0.70 (GBP/USD at 1.85) and formed a top at 0.71 on December 12 (GBP/USD formed a top at 1.93 on December 16) to start a downtrend and subsequently reached a bottom at 0.66 by the end of June 2005 (GBP/USD reached a bottom at 1.74 a month later).

On July 29, 2004 we wrote

Late this year or early next year we expect that the higher bond yields, the strong dollar and the lower share prices will depress US economic growth. That is why we then expect the EUR/USD to start a climb towards 1.35."

On December 31, 2004 EUR/USD closed at 1.36 after a rally from about 1.20.